Aïcha FALL

Key Insights → Urban growth in Africa is now primarily driven by the internal demographic dynamics of cities → Major metropolises simultaneously concentrate wealth creation and structural fragilities → The capacity to provide public services is progressing less quickly than the urban population → The trajectories of major cities differ significantly between West Africa, Central Africa, and Southern Africa → The quality of local governance largely conditions the economic and social effects of urban concentration Key Figures → Approximately 588 million people live in urban areas in Africa in 2023 according to the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, accounting for nearly 44% of the continent's total population, marking an uneven demographic shift. → The urban population in Africa is expected to exceed 1.3 billion inhabitants by 2050 according to United Nations projections, implying a doubling in less than 30 years. → Nearly 80% of the continent's future demographic growth would be absorbed by cities according to the OECD, placing urban spaces at the center of African economic trajectories. → African urban areas produce between 50 and 60% of the continental gross domestic product according to the African Development Bank, despite an average productivity lower than that observed in Asia. → More than 60% of urban Africans reside in informal neighborhoods according to UN Habitat, reflecting the persistent mismatch between demographic growth and the production of formal housing. At the continental level, urbanization is no longer a peripheral phenomenon but a structuring fact. The rapid increase in the number of urban dwellers reshapes territorial hierarchies, modifies economic balances, and reconfigures social relations within major agglomerations. This shift is not merely quantitative. It reflects a sustainable shift of the African center of gravity towards metropolitan spaces that have become both laboratories of innovation, places of wealth concentration, and hubs of multiple tensions. The challenge is therefore no longer solely about the cities' capacity to absorb demographic growth, but about their ability to transform this density into a lever for sustainable development. Between the promise of agglomeration economies and the risk of exacerbating spatial fractures, African metropolises face a complex equation where economic imperatives, institutional constraints, and social arbitrations intertwine. It is in this unstable balance that a decisive part of the continent's trajectory is now at stake. The African city as a demographic and economic matrix Africa is experiencing an unprecedented human concentration in its urban spaces. According to the United Nations, the population living in cities has more than quadrupled since 1980 due to the combined effects of sustained natural growth and persistent economic attraction of major centers. This dynamic is permanently transforming the demographic structure of the continent, making metropolises the main site of population renewal. This human concentration is accompanied by a growing economic weight. The African Development Bank estimates that African cities today generate more than half of the continental gross domestic product while hosting less than half of the total population. Urban agglomerations concentrate non-agricultural jobs, market services, and command functions, but this economic centrality does not mechanically translate into a homogeneous improvement in living conditions. In the debates on urban modernization, Dr. François Gruson, an architect, warns against a display approach. Indeed, “the question is not so much to say I will create a smart city because it is a slogan.” Aligning public services: Imperatives and blind spots of metropolitan adaptation The rapid increase in the number of inhabitants puts existing infrastructures to the test. Access to drinking water, sanitation, electricity, healthcare, and education is progressing but remains insufficient in light of the growing needs. UN Habitat estimates that a majority of urban Africans live in neighborhoods characterized by partial or irregular access to these essential services. Comparable data by city remains fragmented, which limits the detailed analysis of territorial disparities. Mobility systems are another indicator of urban imbalances. The spatial expansion of cities, combined with inadequately developed public transport networks, increases the commuting distances and raises their cost for households. According to the World Bank, urban Africans spend a higher share of their income on daily commuting than in most other developing regions, which restricts access to employment and weighs on the overall productivity of agglomerations. This issue of the adequacy between needs and institutional capacities is also perceived by financing actors. Ms. Aïssata Koite, an international consultant in financial strategy, points out one of the recurring fears when it comes to structuring large urban projects. Today, African countries are not well enough structured to receive large technological investments. It is risky and burdensome, and it worries investors. Governance, planning, and regional trajectories: the key to sustainable urbanism Continental urban dynamics do not follow a uniform pattern. In West Africa, city growth is dominated by very large agglomerations such as Lagos, Abidjan, or Accra, which gather population, capital, and economic activities. In Central Africa, human concentration is rapidly progressing but is framed within more limited institutional frameworks and often discontinuous spatial organization. In Southern Africa, urban concentration levels are higher, but historical legacies continue to structure strong territorial inequalities. In this context, local governance appears as a structuring factor. The OECD emphasizes that cities with their own fiscal resources, clear land frameworks, and coordination mechanisms between levels of government manage to support urban population growth more effectively. Conversely, the absence of planning and sustainable financing tends to freeze metropolises in configurations marked by congestion, informal housing, and social fragmentation. On this point, Kevin Guei, a digital transformation consultant, highlights the need for urban planning that is “tailored” rather than copied. We do not try to copy the West but to adapt to local realities. He also reminds that planning cannot ignore the dominant economic structures of large cities. "It is necessary to take into account the informal economy which represents nearly 90% of activity in some countries.

Key Insights With its exceptional biodiversity and a rapidly expanding domestic market, Africa holds immense opportunities in the cosmetics sector, particularly natural products. From Nigeria to Kenya, through Morocco, Ivory Coast, and Cameroon, demand is growing due to urbanization, the rise of a middle class, and the appreciation of ingredients sourced from local resources. However, the predominance of the informal sector and the lack of harmonized regulatory frameworks still hinder the upgrading and export of local brands. In this context, regulation is not an obstacle to growth. On the contrary, it is a strategic lever for competitiveness, a tool for differentiation, and a passport to regional and international markets. Standardization initiatives led by institutions such as the African Organization for Standardization (ARSO) and the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) pave the way for a gradual integration of standards and certifications across the continent. Key Figures The African cosmetics market is estimated at 3.87 billion USD in 2024 and could reach 7.02 billion USD by 2033 (Market Data Forecast, 2025). In Sub-Saharan Africa, the average annual growth of the sector ranges between 8% and 10%, supported by the growing demand for natural products and the rise of local brands (6Wresearch, 2025). Several countries have established institutions to oversee the quality and safety of products, such as NAFDAC (National Agency for Food and Drug Administration and Control) in Nigeria, ANOR (Agency for Standards and Quality) in Cameroon, KEBS (Kenya Bureau of Standards) in Kenya, and SAHPRA (South African Health Products Regulatory Authority) in South Africa. Often perceived as an administrative burden, regulation is actually a strategic lever for growth and competitiveness, still largely underestimated in African economies. In a rapidly expanding cosmetics sector, anticipating and understanding regulatory requirements can make all the difference in building strong local brands, ensuring consumer safety, gaining their trust, and accessing regional and international markets. A booming sector, hindered by structural challenges The African cosmetics market, estimated to be worth over USD 7.02 billion by 2033, is attracting a growing number of investors, local brands, and multinationals. However, its growth remains hampered by several structural obstacles, including the predominance of the informal sector, fragmentation of production and distribution chains, weak quality control infrastructures, and a still heterogeneous regulatory framework. In most African countries, a significant portion of cosmetic products is still marketed without traceability or certification, exposing consumers to health risks. The strong presence of the informal sector also undermines product quality, often placed on the market without control, to the detriment of public health. This lack of a clear framework discourages many entrepreneurs or companies and limits the structuring of the sector, which struggles to fully capitalize on local resources and know-how. In the face of these challenges, regulation appears as a factor of credibility, safety, and competitiveness. As long as the sector remains devoid of shared benchmarks and applied standards, African brands will struggle to cross the threshold of industrialization, obtain essential certifications, and access export markets. Regulation, a strategic passport Far from being a hindrance, regulation serves as a true strategic passport. It represents a guarantee of quality and safety for the consumer, a tool for differentiation, and an accelerator for access to regional and international markets. A brand that complies with recognized standards reassures, protects consumer health, secures the supply chain, and opens up new commercial opportunities. This requirement also poses a major health challenge. In several African countries, the market remains largely exposed to lightening or whitening products containing banned substances such as hydroquinone or certain corticosteroids. These products, often distributed without control through informal or digital channels, present documented dermatological and carcinogenic risks by the WHO and the European Commission. Moreover, managing the environmental impacts related to production, packaging, and waste management is crucial to ensure a sustainable and responsible cosmetics industry. By adopting environmentally friendly practices, the African industry not only protects ecosystems but also contributes to public health while enhancing its competitiveness. Structuring the industry through local and regional standards Several African countries have begun a gradual structuring of their markets. In Cameroon, for example, the Pre-Shipping Conformity Assessment Program (PECAE) has required a Certificate of Conformity (CoC) for imported products since 2021, ensuring their compliance with national standards. The ANOR standards (NC 804 to NC 816) cover the entire product life cycle, including manufacturing, quality, safety, preservation, labeling, and the truthfulness of advertising claims. In other countries like Kenya or Ghana, similar initiatives often exist, inspired by international ISO or CEN standards. The adoption of these texts not only professionalizes the actors but also establishes a shared culture of quality at the regional level. The AfCFTA in service of continental harmonization One of the main challenges in the sector remains regulatory fragmentation. Each country applies its own standards, procedures, and documentary requirements, making cross-border trade complex and costly. The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) represents a significant opportunity for the sector's competitiveness. By promoting the removal of tariff barriers and mutual recognition of certifications, it lays the groundwork for an integrated cosmetics market. The African Organization for Standardization (ARSO), through its African Conformity Assessment Program (ACAP), strengthens quality infrastructures and facilitates mutual recognition of standards between states. In the East African Community, the DEAS 334:2023 standard already harmonizes regulations related to cosmetic products, facilitating intra-regional trade and ensuring a uniform level of safety for consumers. These advancements reflect a continental movement towards regulatory convergence. Ultimately, a gradual harmonization of standards could enhance African competitiveness in international markets. Training, supporting, encouraging For regulation to become a driver of growth, it is essential to train businesses on regulatory requirements while popularizing local and international standards through accessible digital platforms. Incentive policies such as tax breaks for certified brands, simplified customs procedures for compliant products, or pan-African quality labels could accelerate the adoption of best practices. The African diaspora can also play a key role by sharing its skills and supporting local entrepreneurs in their development. From ambition to action During Mboa Paris 2025, the first business and socio-cultural fair of the Cameroonian diaspora in Europe, these issues were discussed in a workshop with industry professionals: toxicologists, regulatory affairs specialists, biologists, and entrepreneurs. Highlighted were: The central role of regulation for access to local and international markets; The concrete challenges related to certification and export; The need to support entrepreneurs in these processes and the key role of the diaspora in this process. Participants expressed clear needs: enhanced support, better clarity of the regulatory framework, and effective structuring of the sector. These expectations reflect a strong desire to transform regulation into a driver of growth and innovation. In conclusion, the future of the African cosmetics sector will not rely solely on the richness of its biodiversity. It will depend primarily on the ability to structure and harmonize regulatory frameworks at the regional and continental level to promote free trade, professionalize stakeholders, and protect consumer health. Regulation is not a barrier to innovation: its implementation is an essential condition to ensure safety, quality, and competitiveness. Despite the challenges, companies that place compliance, ethics, and transparency at the heart of their strategy can transform regulation into a sustainable competitive advantage. By adhering to local and international standards, they will enhance their reputation, gain consumer trust, and help shape the next era of African beauty, where compliance becomes a driver of innovation and growth. References Market Data Forecast. (2025). Africa cosmetics market size, share, growth, trends & forecast (2024–2033). Retrieved from https://www.marketdataforecast.com 6Wresearch. (2025). Africa cosmetics market overview, opportunities, and forecast 2024–2030. Retrieved from https://www.6wresearch.com Mordor Intelligence. (2024). Africa cosmetics products market – growth, trends, and forecasts (2024–2030). Retrieved from https://www.mordorintelligence.com African Organization for Standardization (ARSO). (2023). African conformity assessment program (ACAP): Strengthening quality infrastructure in Africa. Nairobi, Kenya: ARSO. Retrieved from https://www.arso-oran.org African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). (2024). AfCFTA agreement and implementation framework. Addis Ababa: African Union Commission. Retrieved from https://au-afcfta.org East African Community (EAC). (2023). Draft East African Standard DEAS 334:2023 – Cosmetics — Requirements for labelling and safety. Arusha: EAC Secretariat. Retrieved from https://www.eac.int Standards and Quality Agency (ANOR). (2021). Cameroonian standards on cosmetic products (NC 804 to NC 816). Yaoundé, Cameroon: ANOR. Retrieved from https://www.anor.cm Kenya Bureau of Standards (KEBS). (2022). Standards and regulatory framework for cosmetic products in Kenya. Nairobi: KEBS. Retrieved from https://www.kebs.org South African Health Products Regulatory Authority (SAHPRA). (2022). Regulation of cosmetic products and safety requirements in South Africa. Pretoria: SAHPRA. Retrieved from https://www.sahpra.org.za National Agency for Food and Drug Administration and Control (NAFDAC). (2023). Guidelines for registration of cosmetic products in Nigeria. Abuja: NAFDAC. Retrieved from https://www.nafdac.gov.ng World Health Organization (WHO). (2023). Risks associated with the use of skin lightening products containing hydroquinone and corticosteroids. Geneva: World Health Organization. Retrieved from https://www.who.int European Commission. (2024). EU cosmetic products regulation (EC) No 1223/2009 – Prohibited substances and market safety. Brussels: European Commission. Retrieved from https://health.ec.europa.eu Mboa Paris. (2025). Workshop “Regulation and competitiveness of the African cosmetic sector” – Program of the Mboa Paris 2025 Fair. Paris: Association Mboa Paris. Retrieved from https://www.mboaparis.com